Election Results and Commentary

So out of my endorsements and wishes for this election, a few things came true.

1. We got Kristen Brown for Mayor.
2. We got George Dutro OUT!
3. We have a clerk-treasurer who will know what she is doing.
4. We got Dick Gaynor out of the picture.
5. We have at least one Conservative running in the City Council at Large.
6. We have Frank Miller in.
7. More people voted for Jessie Hill's Co-Runner than Jessie Hill!

Some things that did not go my way.

1. Glen Petri did not win
2. Bob Sullivan did not win
3. Susan Thayer Fye did not win
4. David Jones did not win
5. Chris Rutan did not win.
6. Teresa Henderson did not win.

This is fine. Overall, I believe we are seeing a victory here with some of these candidates. Some endorsements are going to have to change, though.

Max Lemly -D for City Council District 2 will need to be given serious thought since Ryan Brand-R got elected.

No one is getting an endorsement for District 1 because no one seems competent on the issues and what really matters for this district and for this city.

Although David Jones lost the 5th District, Wayne Hanrattie-D cannot be allowed to win. He is an affront to anyone who demands responsible government. Tim Shuffett will have to do. I am interested in hearing what he has to offer in the general election.

Greg Noel-D still has my endorsement. He is a balanced candidate who educates himself well on the issues and takes a look at things with a common sense approach. Frank Jerome-R has many good points to make. He should not be totally discounted, but some of his ideas are far out there (privatization and ambulance services for instance).

Jim Lienhoop will be an odd one to guess. He has not been the best appointed City Councilman, having fabricated the necessity for a Trash Tax, and then championing lower taxes by saying he lowered the trash tax. Wow.

Aaron Hankins messed up again tonight. Many of the candidates who did not show up were ones who did not win, but Aaron won and did not even have the decency to show up at his own Republican Primary event to give a speech or recognize people until everyone was clearing out. He rushed in, said something, lingered a little, then walked. Sorry, I understand that the Hankins twins may not like establishment GOP, but there were a whole heck of a lot more than establishment there last night. Supporters, voters, and others were there. How rude and arrogant to waltz in and hope that everyone stops the whole show because he came in late LATE to make a small speech.

Nonetheless, I would rather have Aaron Hankins in that George Dutro. I definitely want Hankins in instead of Jessie Hill-D who will be running in the Fall. If Aaron can keep Jessie Hill and her Co-Runner out, this City will do just fine.

Joe Richardson was very cordial and very supportive with regards to Kristen Brown. He thanked the supporters and recognized that Republicans largely demanded Kristen Brown be Mayor and that he supports her candidacy. He wished her luck and complimented her on the kind of change she wants to bring to City Hall.

Greg Renner stepped up, thanked his supporters, talked about how great Columbus is, AGAIN, and then started to walk off and flinched back at Kristen and said "Good luck Kristen." Not that he had to bow down to her, but that is it? Good luck Kristen? No support for your Republican candidate? Now we see who is and who is NOT a Republican.

Mark White did not show.

Brown Vs Scalf

This is going to be interesting.

Let's make a projection without considering the independent voters who do not vote in the primary. Let's just focus on the parties.

The Republicans had 5179 voters turn out to vote for Mayor. The Democrats had 1587. Total 6766

Kristen Brown carried 3109 votes.
Scalf Carried 1054.

If Kristen Brown were to carry ALL Republican votes and Scalf were to carry ALL Democrat votes, then Kristen Brown would win 76%.

But that is not going to happen, at least probably not.

Let's say they carry the votes they got in their primaries.
Kristen Brown would have 45.9% of the vote in the bag.
Scalf would only have 15.6%.

Now let's say that those who did not vote for Kristen Brown and those who did not vote for Scalf, vote for their opponents (Nancy ann brown supports supporting Kristen and Richards/Renner/White supporting Scalf).

Kristen would have 3642 votes.
Scalf would have 3124 votes.

53.8% against 46.2%; a 7 point lead for Kristen.

This is not including independent voters.

Let's inject the independents.

Based on the difference between the primary and general of 2007, there is a potential of 4846 independent or extra voters. Let's add that to the 6766 amd we get 11612. That turn out is UNHEARD of for Municipal election in Columbus, but this race might prove to be powerful enough to get many more voters to the polls.

If Kristen were garanteed her votes, then she would have 26.8% of the vote tucked away. If she had TOTAL Republican Primary support, she would have 44.6% of the vote tucked away.

Priscilla would have 9% if she carried her votes to the independent voter injected General Election, and 13.7% with full primary support.

Inverted opponent support numbers would make Kristen Brown have 31.4% and Scalf to have 26.9%.

This means that Kristen Brown and Priscilla Scalf still have quite a bit of work ahead of them. Scalf will have far more work to do that Kristen, but Kristen needs to also work at least as hard to minimze the amount of votes Scalf gets.

I project Kristen Brown winning 56% to 44%. A 12 point lead. This is a poor to mediocre scenario projection. I think she is capable of a 20 point lead or even 25. It is far FAR too early to know, but it sure is fun trying to project, nonetheless.

A trend should be recognized here. People want someone like Kristen Brown. I do not think too many Republican voters will turn into Scalf-ers. I think there is more of a chance of people who voted for Nancy Ann Brown voting for Kristen Brown because of experience and knowledge of how government works, should work, and how to solve our problems.

This is not to say we should count the chickens before they hatch. There were plenty of people who came out for the 2007 general (21% turnout) to vote for Armstrong. Many Republicans voted for Armstrong, but that tide has turned, as made evident by the primary vote.

A MASSIVE amount of Republicans came out to vote for Kristen. Mark White in 2007 didn't even break 1000 votes, though he was the only one running. Fred did not break 500. He was the only one running. What has happened?

I believe people are fed up with government that will not listen to them. They are tired of being bullied around. Small business owners are ready for an ALL business friendly environment in Columbus. People are ready for someone to be in the Mayor's office who has not got their commission appointments, department heads, and cronies all picked out already. People are ready for another Bob Stewart era.

Bob Stewart brought in many of the Japanese companies we have in Columbus. Toyota, Enkei, NTN, and more. 1billion+dollars were invested in Columbus by business. We need leadership similar to that. We cannot expect Kristen to be Bob Stewart. We expect her to be herself. That is the way she will achieve results, but I believe we will see great results from her with a warm and friendly outreach to people to understand more what really matters to them.

76% of voters today expressed that they want a Republican as Mayor. 60% of that 76% (Republicans) affirmed Kristen's status as a Republican. 60% of Republicans said they want Kristen Brown to lead Columbus. That's not a landslide. That is blowing the competition out of the water, but Kristen did not do it. The people did.

Let's not get starry eyed at Kristen. Let us continue to think rationally about her and see exactly what her plans are as Mayor.

And to those Independents out there who might have been persuaded by a certain mayor and few double crossing Republicans to run if Kristen Brown is nominated for the purpose of siphoning votes, 60% of Republicans say they do not want an independent, they want Kristen Brown. Beware.

Thanks to those who voted, no matter whom you voted for. You have provided a great service to your community by expressing your voice and your wishes.